Democrats Rue Ballot Foul-Up in a 2nd CountyNew York Times, 2000/11/17
The percentage of invalidated votes here was far higher than that recorded in Palm Beach County, which has become the focus of national attention and where Democrats have argued that so many people were disenfranchised it may be necessary to let them vote again. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have demanded a hand recount or new election in Duval County.
Local election officials attributed the outcome to a ballot that had the name of presidential candidates on two pages, which they said many voters found confusing. Many voters, they said, voted once on each page. The election officials said they would not use such a ballot in the future.
Rodney G. Gregory, a lawyer for the Democrats in Duval County, said the party shared the blame for the confusion. Mr. Gregory said Democratic Party workers instructed voters, many persuaded to go to the polls for the first time, to cast ballots in every race and "be sure to punch a hole on every page."
"The get-out-the vote folks messed it up," Mr. Gregory said ruefully.
If Mr. Gregory's assessment is correct, and thousands of Gore supporters were inadvertently misled into invalidating their ballots, this county alone would have been enough to give Mr. Gore the electoral votes of Florida, and thus the White House.
If this hypothesis is correct, the behavior of Democratic voters would result in these additional patterns in the voting data for Duval County:
This document analyzes Duval County precinct data to evaluate the validity of the "punch every page" hypothesis.
The raw precinct return data for Duval County, Florida, for the general election of November 7, is available from the web page of the Duval County Commisioner of Elections. This data is in a format which is not spreadsheet friendly.
The data has been reformatted into a standard CSV format file for this analysis (which you can download here).
The first step of the analysis is to sort each Duval County precinct according to the percentage of Democratic voters in the November 7th general election (see "What is a Democrat?" sidebar). The precincts are placed in order, with "least Democratic" precinct first, and "most Democratic" precinct last.
The next step is to determine the percentage of missing votes for each precinct, for each of four races: U.S. President, U.S. Senator, Florida Treasurer/Insurance Commissioner, and Florida Commissioner of Education. "Missing" votes are determined by taking the sum of all votes cast for all candidates in a given race in a given precinct, and subtracting that figure from the total ballots cast in that precinct.
A "missing" vote can be the result of an undervote (failure of a valid selection to be read by the vote counting machine), of an overvote (an invalid selection of more than one candidate in a single race), or of an abstention (a deliberate omission of a vote for a candidate).
The resulting data can be plotted on a graph, as seen in figure 1.. Because of the "noisy" character of the data, and the relatively large number of different data sets being plotted on the same chart, it is difficult to visualize trends in this figure.
To facilitate visualization, a second data set is derived from the first set by taking a running four-unit average. The first element is computed as the average of the first, second, third, and fourth elements of the original set. The second element is computed as the second, third, fourth, and fifth elements of the original set, and so on. This running average technique has the effect of "smoothing out" local random variations in the data, so larger trends are more apparent.
The resulting data plot is seen in figure 2.
This organization of the data illustrates three types of information simultaneously:
Figure 1 Explanation
Figure 2 Explanation
To account for this under the "punch every page" hypothesis, one would have to assume that the Democrats were almost entirely responsible for the missing presidential votes. In other words, one would posit that Republican voters had extremely low rates of invalidated presidential votes, and that approximately one out of every five Democrats--uniformly throughout Duval county--invalidated their presidential vote as they dutifully punched their way, page by page, from the front of the ballot to the back By itself, this proposition may not be entirely plausible, but when viewed in light of other data, it is even less so.
For Republican precincts (those with less than 50% Democratic voters), the plot of missing Commissioner of Education votes is unexceptional. It is only a few percent greater than the comparable data for Lee County (figure 3). The overwhelming majority of these missing votes are almost certainly "abstentions": votes not cast for a race few care about. However, the rate of missing education votes does not increase or decrease as Democratic participation rises from 10% to 50%. This suggests that Democratic voters in the Republican precincts were punching or not punching selections for Commissioner of Education at approximately the same rate as Republican voters.
However, in the same range, the percentage of missing presidential votes rises in direct proportion to the percentage of Democratic voters, ostensibly due to the influence of "every page" voters. One might argue that the Republican voting population has the same proportion of "every page" voters as the Democratic population, but that the Republican "every page" voters never mistakenly double-punch the presidential race. This argument, however, does not withstand the evidence of the Democratic precincts, where the percentage of missing education votes increases significantly in proportion to the increase in Democratic composition.
The increase of missing education votes in Democratic precincts indicates that the "every page" voting behavior of Democratic voters in Republican precincts differs from that of Democratic voters in Democratic counties. Yet the increase of missing presidential vote indicates that Democrats have the same "every page" voting behavior regardless of precinct party composition.
The "every page" hypothesis only provides an explanation for how presidential votes could go missing. One would expect, in consequence, that the missing vote rate for non-presidential races in Duval County would be similar to comparable counties. However, by comparing these races with the plots in figure 3, one notices that Duval County missing vote rates in the senatorial, and treasurer races also show an anomolous trend upward with increased Democratic participation, albeit not to the same extent as the presidential race.
Figure 3 Explanation
Approximately 20,000 presidential votes have gone missing in Duval County (above and beyond what would normally be expected). So far there is not a hypothesis that successfully explains why that is also consistent with all the data.
What is a Democrat?There are many ways to define a Democrat (or Republican, for that matter), but most are too ambiguous for the purposes of a statistical analysis.
A voter can be a registered member of the Democratic Party, but vote for Republicans more often than not. Another voter may not have a party affiliation, but vote straight Democratic tickets election after election. Which is the Democrat?
For the purposes of this analysis, a Democrat is someone who, all else being equal, will vote for a Democratic candidate over a Republican candidate. This definition, though, then raises the question of how to determine "all else being equal".
Generally speaking, the less a voter knows about contending candidates, the more "all else is equal". A cross-correlation analysis of all the races in the Duval County general election bears this out. The minor races for Treasurer and Commissioner of Education are the most partisan of all the countywide races. That is to say, Democratic and Republican votes in these races are most strongly correlated with votes for Democratic and Republican candidates in other races. Also, Republican votes in the Treasurer race have the least correlation with Democratic votes in the Education race (and vice versa, both ways).
Correlation Coefficients of Candidate Votes In Duval County
Percent Democratic = (Cosgrove + Sheldon) / (Gallagher + Cosgrove + Crist + Sheldon)